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Some highlights from the July issue of Market Commentary by Michael Herring. To read the complete article, please click here.
In the spirit of providing a contrarian view of the markets, I've attached is a market commentary article called "Keep Cool" by Michael Herring, of our Investment Strategy Group. The article summizes that good news is getting missed out there. Here are some highlights...
Bear Markets are Common - occurring approximately every 3 years. While equity markets are volatile, investors are compensated for this added risk through higher long-term rates of return.
Housing Bottoming Out soon? - Home sale prices in 8 of 20 US metroplitan areas actually rose from March to April. The pace of price declines in the negative markets is slowing.
US exports are growing - US dollar weakness vis-a-vis global currencies is starting to show a significant impact on exports.
Consumer Confidence index - The current reading is 50.4 (a 16-yr low). In 26 of the 27 previous occurences (where the reading was below 60), the average price return on the S&P 500, 12 months hence, was + 20.21%.
Our take: The jury is still out on whether or not we are close to a bottom. Many stocks look cheap right now (and will likely get cheaper). There is still bad news out there and we may be facing short-term headwinds. Rising Inflation and growth slowdown risks are legitimate and real concerns. But there are some positive signs, that shouldn't be ignored. In this environment, the old stand-bys of portfolio management, are now more important than ever. Stay diversified to reduce risk and volatility....Invest within your risk tolerance....Be patient. Things will improve.
Paul Hamilton
July 17, 2008
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