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February 22, 2005 — 10:00 am
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (February)

Consumer Confidence Slips Slightly
Dr. Sherry Cooper,
Executive Vice-President, Global Economic Strategist,
BMO Financial Group
Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets
sherry.cooper@bmo.com

The U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index decreased to 104.0 in February from 105.1 in January, which was, in turn, revised up from the 103.4 previously reported. A mild decline had been expected, particularly after the University of Michigan index was reported down last Friday (-1.3 pts to 94.2).

For the fourth month in a row, the assessment of the present situation improved and is now hovering at a 3-1/2 year high. The expectations component slipped for the second consecutive month.

The critical "jobs plentiful" reading was essentially unchanged, while "jobs hard to get" fell. As such, the net “jobs hard to get" measure improved to +1.7 from +3.3, which is the best net result since the spring of 2002.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
(1985 = 100)
Feb Jan Dec Feb 04
Consumer Confidence:
Confidence Index 104.0 105.1 102.7 88.5
Present Situation 116.4 112.1 105.7 83.3
Expectations 95.7 100.4 100.7 91.9
Employment: (percent reporting)
Jobs Hard to Get 22.6 24.3 26.4 28.9
Jobs Plentiful 20.9 21.0 19.4 14.5
Plan to Buy Homes:
New 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3
Existing 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4
Plan to Buy Appliances 27.1 28.3 30.1 27.5
Plan to Buy New Autos 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9

The Bottom Line: Despite dipping in the latest month, consumer confidence is still close to its best performance since the spring of 2002, led by improving perceptions of the labour market. The employment reports for February and subsequent months appear poised to post better results.

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