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August 30, 2005 — 10:00 am
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (August)

U.S. Consumers Still Confident, For Now
Dr. Sherry Cooper,
Executive Vice-President, Global Economic Strategist,
BMO Financial Group
Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets
sherry.cooper@bmo.com

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 105.6 in August from 103.6 in July (which was revised up from 103.2). Despite record high energy prices, the Present Situation Index improved as did the Expectations Index. The former moved up more than the latter, owing to the employment picture. The measure of jobs "plentiful" rose to 23.5 from 22.9, while jobs “hard to get” slipped to 23.2 from 23.8. Thus, the net jobs hard to get figures improved to -0.3 from 0.9, its best reading since October 2001. This bodes well for Friday’s payroll report.

Planned consumer spending on homes and major appliances declined in August, as the home purchase component slipped to its lowest level in nine months. This is another sign that housing market activity might finally be starting to crest. Plans to purchase new automobiles edged up, likely egged on by “employee pricing” sales incentives.

In a separate release, factory orders dropped 1.9% in July as a 1.7% increase in non-durable goods orders (which incorporate petroleum products) were unable to fully offset a 4.9% slump in durable goods orders. Manufacturing inventories increased 0.5%, the best performance in five months, suggesting that inventory accumulation might add to GDP growth in Q3.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
(1985 = 100)
Aug Jul Jun Aug 04
Consumer Confidence:
Confidence Index 105.6 103.6 106.2 98.7
Present Situation 123.6 119.3 120.8 100.7
Expectations 93.7 93.2 96.4 97.3
Employment: (percent reporting)
Jobs Hard to Get 23.2 23.8 22.5 26.0
Jobs Plentiful 23.5 22.9 22.5 18.4
Net Jobs Hard to Get -0.3 0.9 0.0 7.6
Plan to Buy:
Homes 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.9
New Cars 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.9
Appliances 29.0 31.7 32.4 29.0

The Bottom Line: The ultimate test for consumer confidence will come when households start paying their inflated heating bills on top of what it takes them to top-up their gas tanks. So far, the game has been to pay for higher energy costs by going out less to the movies or to restaurants (and for those with less discretionary income, by spending less at discount stores). A major confidence hit would mean not only reallocation but a reining-in of spending growth (increased savings). We'll just have to wait and see whether the current situation gets any worse.

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