Consumer Prices

Employment

The Federal Reserve

Housing Starts and Building Permits

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

International Trade in Goods and Services

Personal Income and Consumption

Producer Prices

Real GDP

Retail Sales

ISM Index
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The report on retail sales is released mid-month following the reference month and is a timely, major indicator of the strength of consumer demand. Retail sales account for about 40% of total consumer spending as services are excluded. The report is based on a random sample survey of about 4,100 merchants, and is subject to substantial revision based on subsequent data from the much larger Monthly Retail Trade report.

Retail sales are used to estimate the personal consumption expenditure component of the GDP report, and in the personal income and consumption report that is released following GDP. The BTM/UBS Warburg Index and the LJR Redbook, measure chain store sales. They are reported on a weekly basis, and are useful indicators for retail sales. Also relevant are consumer sentiment surveys, such as those produced by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan.

As auto sales are known by the time of this report, the component excluding sales of autos presents the new information. Also, as the prices for food and energy can be volatile, it often pays to exclude gas station receipts or food store sales, to get a crisper view of consumer demand.

The sales of durable goods should also receive close attention, due to their interest-sensitivity. The impact of the Fed raising interest rates to ward off inflation should lead to a decrease in durable goods spending, indicating an approaching slowdown.